Download Social Sciences for Counterterrorism - Putting the Pieces by Paul K. Davis, Kim Cragin, Darcy Noricks, Todd C. Helmus, PDF

By Paul K. Davis, Kim Cragin, Darcy Noricks, Todd C. Helmus, Christopher Paul

This monograph surveys and integrates scholarly social-science literature correct to counterterrorism. It attracts from quite a few disciplines after which makes use of high-level conceptual versions to tug the items jointly relating to root explanations, person radicalization, public help, and the ways that terrorism fades. It identifies issues of contract and war of words and discusses the results of alternative contexts and views.

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Additional resources for Social Sciences for Counterterrorism - Putting the Pieces Together

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For example, a group’s willingness to accept perceived risks is to some extent subjective, whereas assessment of a target’s success, of operational security, or of the group’s capabilities may be rather objective. Explaining Empirical Results with a Rational-Choice Model Some of the best quantitative research on terrorism and counterterrorism has been accomplished by economists applying rational-choice models to empirical data. Some such work has gone well beyond the usual statistical analysis of heterogeneous data with uncertain significance to analysis of special datasets that can be seen as reflecting “natural experiments”—that is, phenomena under a range of conditions akin to the range that an idealized social experiment would call for.

5 Procedural Elements of an Approach Tier One Collect factors, focusing on concepts, not proxies Define factor levels meaningfully Organize in multiresolution factor trees Consider alternative trees for different perspectives Translate trees into influence diagrams with feedback loops, dotted lines Annotate diagrams to indicate first-order combining logic Review, debate, iterate, refine Tier Two By module, characterize combining functions with diagrams, logic tables, “operator math,” and pseudo code Implement simple module-level models, exercise, refine Compare representations and conduct live model-observation exercises to elicit comments, insights Do, as above, for system-level model Doing so would include conferences, peer-reviewed work, and convergencefocused activities, with the goal of reaching integrated conclusions (even though expressed more in terms of odds than confident prediction).

The drop in perceived legitimacy can come about naturally, as when terrorists become too bloodthirsty and indiscriminate. 7 is notional, it may suffice to illustrate how social-science knowledge could be displayed to clarify issues of relative leverage. 5. A core element of the process is exploiting factor-tree representations to define modules for the research community to address separately—but always with the larger perspective in mind. With multiple research thrusts for each of the crucial modules, it should be possible to sharpen the trees, to define how to “measure” the factors (even if subjectively), to sharpen the understanding of how the various factors combine and when they are more or less important, and to work toward approximate causal descriptions that improve the odds of correct diagnosis and prescription.

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