By Takatoshi Ito, Anne O. Krueger
The quantity of capital flows among business and constructing nations has grown dramatically some time past decade and has turn into a huge factor in an international that's more and more "globalized." right here Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger, prime specialists in this subject, have assembled a bunch of students who deal with kinds of capital flows—bank lending, bonds, direct international investment—and the results they carry for fiscal functionality. With its specific specialize in the Asian monetary crises, this paintings provides a brand new version for coverage makers all over the place in wondering the function of personal capital flows.
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Additional info for Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences (National Bureau of Economic Research East Asia Seminar on Economics)
In spite of this, a credit crunch was still severe in most countries: While the price of credit had been falling, banks that were eﬀectively bankrupt or experiencing ﬁnancial distress were unwilling to lend to corporations suﬀering from debt overhang. As loans were still drastically rationed, capital controls leading to lower interest rates would have done little to ease the credit crunch. Moreover, it is far from clear whether they would have helped to remove structural impediments to recovery.
Standard errors are shown in parentheses. 30 As evidence on the proﬁtability of the investment projects, one can employ a standard measure of investment eﬃciency, the ICOR (incremental capital output ratio), deﬁned as the ratio between the investment rate and the output growth rate. In Corsetti, Pesenti, and Roubini (1999c), we document that, for all the Asian countries except Indonesia and the Philippines, the ICOR had increased sharply in the 1993–96 period relative to the previous three years 1987–1992.
While, of course, an increase in domestic interest rates may also signal a frustrated speculative attack, our crisis index excludes changes in interest rates. This is because an increase in interest rates in the presence of speculative pressures is highly correlated with nonsterilized foreign exchange intervention, leading to a fall in reserves. 12. In principle, IMF oﬃcial loans should be subtracted from oﬃcial reserves in computing the index IND. However, our results would not signiﬁcantly change if we accounted for IMF disbursements in 1997.